India's economic growth is likely to slow down to 6.5 per cent this fiscal and to 6 per cent in the subsequent year mainly due to high oil prices, which reactivated inflation, the Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday.
China is slowing down, Europe is barely afloat and the US is meeting a larger chunk of its own demand.
Who else will take on the might of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon if not the Adanis, Ambanis, Birlas, or Tatas?, asks R Jagannathan.
The wide-ranging sanctions imposed by the US on the Russian oil sector have started to dent near-term oil flows to India with state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) saying not enough cargoes are available for March.
Merchandise exports to the US jumped 23.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to $8.3 billion in June, even as India's overall outbound shipments witnessed contraction during the month, according to the data released by the commerce department on Tuesday. The increase in outbound shipments to the US was largely driven by the rush among exporters to utilise America's pause on its plans to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs.
Equity markets this week would keenly track the upcoming GST Council meeting, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors for further movement, analysts said. Moreover, developments related to tariff negotiations, global market trends and auto sales data would also drive investors' sentiment.
India's macroeconomic health is in a "relative goldilocks situation", and although the risk of higher landed oil prices, due to insurance cost surges and closure of choke points due to the brief Israel-Iran war, has receded, it is "too soon to sound the 'all clear' for the rest of the year", the Finance Ministry said on Friday.
On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank were the laggards. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai's SSE Composite index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng settled higher.
Government's fuel subsidy estimate was based on crude oil at $70.
'Things may get much worse before they get better,' predicts Ajay Chhibber.
Centre and state governments are steadily increasing excise duties and value-added tax
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive because it raises the cost for imports for most of the world's countries
US crude was down 25 cents at $52.08.
The reference case forecast takes into account the dire state of the world economy and expects global demand to fall by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009. It also does not foresee any further compliance by OPEC countries with the quota reductions announced last December. Dated Brent was expected to have average $45 per barrel in the first quarter, rising to $50.4 per barrel in the second and $51.8 per barrel in the third, then up to $53.4 per barrel.
Rising production from OPEC as well as the US also weighing on prices
Budget is widely seen as a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
Indian rupee slipping below the record 88 level against the US dollar will enhance price competitiveness of Indian products in global markets and help exporters diversify beyond the US market, say exporters. However, import-dependent sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum and electronics may see lower benefits due to a rise in input costs, they stated.
Mining major Vedanta's consolidated net profit plunged 58.69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1,798 crore in the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), dragged down by exceptional losses booked during the period under review. The company had reported a net exceptional gain of Rs 1,160 crore in Q2FY25.
'The world is heading into a period of serious problems, and gold and silver are among the few ways to protect oneself.'
Spiralling oil prices will exert huge pressure on India's balance sheet of inflows and outflows of resources resulting in a three-fold increase in the current account deficit to 4.7 per cent of the country's GDP in fiscal ending 2009, a Goldman Sachs report said on Wednesday.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on Monday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after the US bombed three major nuclear sites in Iran. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 705.65 points to 81,702.52 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 182.85 points to 24,929.55.
India imports about 25 million tonnes of oil from Iraq each year.
More than half of the total subsidy provisioning, amounting to 54 per cent, is going towards food subsidy, which is estimated at Rs 184,220 crore for 2019-20 - a 7.5 per cent increase over the revised estimates for 2018-19.
From the Sensex constituents, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were among the biggest gainers. In contrast, Power Grid, Trent, NTPC, Maruti, HCL Tech and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
The gold and crude oil prices, which have risen to records this year, may ease a little if the US central bank Federal Reserve cut rates at its meeting on Tuesday, an analyst said.The Fed is scheduled to meet today to consider revision of interest rates. The US banking sector regulator has already cut the rate at which it lends to banks by 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent at an emergency weekend meeting on Monday.
Among Sensex firms, Maruti zoomed the most by 8.94 per cent. Bajaj Finance rallied over 5 per cent, UltraTech Cement by 3.71 per cent, and Bajaj Finserv by 3.7 per cent. Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever and Trent were also among the gainers. However, ITC was the biggest loser, dropping by 1.26 per cent. Eternal, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro also declined.
'The E20 usage accrues the huge benefit to the nation, to the society, to the farmer, to the environment, to the exchequer and all of us'
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Consultancy Services, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, Bajaj Finserv and NTPC were the laggards. IndusInd Bank, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti were among the biggest gainers.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
The exit of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) from the Hyderabad Metro is a long-term positive for the stock. It could be a bullish trigger, alongside higher international orders, and new opportunities in segments like defence and data centres.
Qatar will lead growth in the region with around 8.7 per cent, while growth will be about six per cent each in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, 4.5 per cent in the United Arab Emirates, 4.2 per cent in Oman and 3.1 per cent in Bahrain, the report by Kuwait-based Gulf Investment Company said.
The government is expecting a better soyabean and groundnut production on account of well-distributed monsoon rains and good prices.
Reliance Industries' refining earnings will remain steady, supported by its position as India's largest importer of Russian crude and favourable global supplies, according to analysts at JM Financial and Goldman Sachs. Reliance imported more Russian barrels than any other Indian refiner in the past eight months, according to data from Bloomberg/Kpler.
Retail inflation in August rose slightly to 2.07 per cent from 1.61 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to increase in prices of vegetables, meat and fish, according to a government data released on Friday.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Steel, HCL Tech, UltraTech Cement, Bharat Electronics, Sun Pharma and Tata Consultancy Services were the major gainers. However, Axis Bank, Titan, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
Price of international crude oil - the raw material for making petrol and diesel - dropped to a three-year low before marginally recovering but a revision in domestic petrol and diesel rates is likely only if lower rates are sustained, industry sources and officials said. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel on Tuesday - the first time since December 2021 - but gained thereafter after Hurricane Francine hit crude supply in the Gulf of Mexico. Brent rose above $71 a barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade near $68.
Gold prices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming week as investors await key US macroeconomic data for cues on the Federal Reserve's potential direction on interest rates, which in turn will influence the trajectory for the precious metal, according to analysts. Market sentiment has tilted away from safe-haven assets like gold amid fading geopolitical tensions and improving risk appetite towards riskier assets such as equities, they said.
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